(Note: This blog entry is based on the text for “Prediction Market”, originally shared on June 25, 2026. It was the 419th video for our YouTube Channel, Streams of Living Water (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCB7KnYS1bpHKaL2OseQWCnw), co-produced with my wife, Rev. Sally Welch.)
Most people are motivated by some kind of reward. One kind is temporary
and another is eternal. One divides and another unites. Which reward motivates
you?
Sally and I have got the fever! FIFA World
Cup Soccer Fever! 😊
We don’t usually
follow soccer, though when our son graduated from high school and Sally’s
mother gave us some money to take him to Europe on a ship, the European
Championships were going on. It was a ship based in England, so the games were
a very big deal. They were broadcast live on board.
Somehow, I don’t
know why, we started following Portugal. Christiano Ronaldo was in his second
year playing professional soccer, and he was on the team.
We organized our
daily schedule around when Portugal was playing. We made friends with people on
board who were from Portugal. “Por-tu-gal! Por-tu-gal!”
When we got to
England, we found pubs that showed Portugal’s games, and we watched them until
they were knocked out of the tournament.
Now, with the FIFA
World Cup being held in North America, we are again watching soccer. We are
rooting for the U.S., and the country of my family’s origin, Norway, and the
countries of Sally’s family’s origin in the British Isles.
It’s exciting to
see the world come to our part of the globe.
It’s also been fun
seeing the mostly positive reactions of the tourists to how nice people are in
the U.S. Many have been pleasantly surprised by our fast food, our sports stadiums,
the wide-open spaces (including around private homes), even gas station
mini-marts! One visitor said that he felt like he was living in a movie!
There has been a
wholesome atmosphere among the fans, for the most part, and everyone seems to
be having fun and is happy to be here.
Their passion is
infectious.
Why? Why do they,
and now we, care about winning a small trophy?
Partly, I think,
it’s because of the intangibles. We are made for community. We want to belong
to something, we want to think that we have an identity that sets us apart. We
favor our identity over the identity of others. And we like to think of
ourselves as being the best, even if vicariously, and even if only for a short
time.
Right now, the
games are pretty friendly, even when played by teams of nations that are in
some level of conflict with one another.
But we have seen
what happens when “hooligans” take control. They’re not there for the game.
They’re there for the trouble.
Riots aren’t
pretty. And they are more likely to happen as the tournament moves along and
there is more at stake and as old grudges take root.
And, as people have
placed bets, and have money in the game, indirectable anger will boil over into
homes and communities, among family and friends and neighbors. It is projected
that global betting on FIFA World Cup games will be somewhere between $50
billion and $60 billion dollars for this tournament!
That is the
pollution of sport. The desire for tangible rewards.
We experienced
something about pollution this past week. The pollution that has been blowing
east from the massive warehouse fire in Boyle Heights has been polluting our
air since last Wednesday! One small inferno has ruined the air for millions of
people across L.A. County and beyond.
It doesn’t take
much to pollute something that is much larger.
Rewards and
punishments themselves can be huge motivators in human behavior, and they can
have widespread effects. But which rewards we seek, and what we do to get them,
are also huge factors.
Many retail
businesses have rewards programs. Sometimes they’re called loyalty programs. They
keep track of your purchases on their apps, and you get points toward getting
rewards.
Sally and I get
points from Target, for example, and from our credit cards, and from Mr. D’s
Diner, and 99 Ranch Market, and more. At some point we redeem them.
When I was a kid,
the public library had a summer reading program where we got a stamp on a card
for reading a book. At the end of the summer, we could redeem those stamps for
a reward, a certificate. They worked as a motivator.
Does God have a
rewards program?
Yes, though it’s
different from any rewards in this world.
We live in a world
that is polluted by sin. We are separated from God by Sin. The world is
not the way God created it to be, and it’s not like the way it will be in the
new heaven and the new earth that Jesus will usher in with his second coming.
In fact, the battle has already been won on the cross of Christ and in His
resurrection.
All who believe and
are baptized, who live in a living relationship with the one true living God,
receive the gift of new, eternal life now by God’s gift of faith through God’s grace.
But God also has a
rewards program.
In God’s rewards
program, you don’t need to be a prophet to receive a prophet’s reward. You
don’t need to be a righteous person to receive a righteous person’s reward. And
you don’t have to be a disciple to receive a disciple’s reward.
How can that be?
Here’s what Jesus
says, in Matthew 10:40-42,
40‘Whoever welcomes you welcomes
me, and whoever welcomes me welcomes the one who sent me. 41Whoever
welcomes a prophet in the name of a prophet will receive a prophet's reward;
and whoever welcomes a righteous person in the name of a righteous person will
receive the reward of the righteous; 42and whoever gives even a
cup of cold water to one of these little ones in the name of a disciple—truly I
tell you, none of these will lose their reward.’
Rewards? Rewards
are not certain in this life, as we hear in Ecclesiastes 9:11,
11 Again I saw that under the
sun the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, nor bread to
the wise, nor riches to the intelligent, nor favor to the skillful; but time
and chance happen to them all.
What can we
depend upon if there seems to be no reliability in this life?
This week’s Gospel
reading reminds us that we can we can depend on God.
There was a lot of
what commentators called “physicality” in the basketball games during the
recent NBA Championship. (Quick question: who won? I’d guess that a lot of us
have forgotten already.)
And there have been
a lot of “physical” soccer games in the current FIFA World Cup.
“Physical” is, I
think, a euphemism for violent and brutal, where players get away with behavior
that would be called a foul during regular season play.
One of my favorite sports quotes comes from the
comedian Gary Shandling, who once reflected on Leo Durocher, the ruthless coach
of the Dodgers when they were the Brooklyn Dodgers, and who famously said,
“Nice guys finish last.”
Gary Shandling said, “Nice guys finish
first, and anyone who doesn’t know that doesn’t know where the finish line is.”
What is the
finish line? And where is it? And when will it appear?
Prediction markets
have become extremely popular, and extremely destructive lately.
Prediction markets
are a kind of online gambling where people go to an app and place a bet on an
event happening or not. FanDuel is a kind of prediction market where
participants can set up contracts, usually “yes” or “no”, to bet on the outcome
or the point spread of sporting events, cryptocurrency, political outcomes,
finance, and more.
It’s shocking to me
that these things are allowed to advertise themselves on TV, during the events
themselves, and that people think that they can reliably predict the future,
especially given the ancient wisdom that we just read that, “time and chance
happen to them all.”
People may think
that they have figured out the date for the Second Coming of Christ, even
though Jesus said that no one knows when it will happen, and they may want to
place a bet on it, and someday someone will be randomly right (though good luck
collecting on your bet)! 😊
No one will know
the time, but we do know the outcome already.
We know that
today’s reading from Matthew 10 is the key to living that coming outcome
of the welcoming relationship with God that overcomes our divisions and lasts
forever. It is finding our connection and our unity in the common relationship
with Jesus that we have been given, expressed in John 17:23
23 I in them and you in me, that
they may become completely one, so that the world may know that you have sent
me and have loved them even as you have loved me.
That’s the outcome!
That’s the kind of
reward that lasts forever. It overcomes our divisions and makes us whole. It
makes the difference between life and death!
We were created for
a living relationship with the one true living God, but we rejected it. Sin is
that separation from God.
We are sinners
reconciled to God by God’s unearned love, through faith in Jesus Christ who
earned it for us on the cross.
The key to God’s
reward program is in the first verse of our main text, Matthew 10:40,
40‘Whoever welcomes you welcomes
me, and whoever welcomes me welcomes the one who sent me.
Jesus is the key to
eternal life! When we tell the story of our faith, we are telling the story of
Jesus!
So, if we all were
created for a living relationship with the living God and we rejected it, but
that relationship was restored by Jesus Christ on the cross, why isn’t there
more unity in our churches?
We are divided, we
are fractured, pulverized and digitized. We can’t talk about politics or social
values, or sometimes even the Bible and the Christian life, without conflict,
so we have devolved into homogeneous groups of political and social values, and
race and tribe, and personal identity and sexuality. We now accept our
rejection of others as normal. Why?
I once heard a
story about the congregation of a Jewish synagogue that holds true for many,
many Christian church congregations, but I first heard it about a synagogue, so
that’s how I’m going to tell it.
A new rabbi was
called to serve and during his first worship service he noticed that half the
congregation stood during the Shema (the part that begins, “Hear,
O Israel, the Lord is our God, the Lord is One.”) and half were
seated.
Those who stood
hissed at those who were seated, “Stand up! Stand up! It’s the tradition!”
And those who were
seated hissed back, “Sit down! Sit down! It’s the tradition!”
After the service,
the rabbi turned to the cantor and said, “What was that all about?!”
“What?” the cantor
answered.
“All that hissing
about standing and sitting!”
“Oh, that. I don’t
even hear that anymore.”
“But how did it get
started? And who’s right?”
“That was happening
when I got here, and I think it’s been going on for a long time,” the cantor
answered.
The new rabbi found
some contact information for his predecessor and called him up.
“Rabbi ___. People
are arguing during the Shema about whether to stand or to sit. Both sides say
that theirs is the tradition. Who’s right?”
“I don’t know. They
were doing that when I got there and I could never get them to settle it.”
“Well, who would
know?” the new rabbi asked.
“You could try my
predecessor, Rabbi___.”
So, the new rabbi
called through a succession of rabbis who didn’t know who was right until one
said, “Well, you could call Rabbi ___. He’s the founding rabbi. He’s in a
retirement home now but he’s still pretty sharp. He could probably tell you.”
The new rabbi was
relieved that finally he could settle the issue once and for all.
He took a member of
the “sit down” faction and a member of the “stand up” faction and drove to meet
the founding rabbi.
After some
pleasantries about the congregation, the new rabbi got down to business.
“Rabbi___, the
congregation is divided. Half the congregation stands during the Shema, and
half the congregation sits. Both say that theirs is the tradition. We are here
today to ask who is right.”
The founding rabbi
nodded, and the new rabbi said, “Is it the tradition to stand during the
Shema?”
“No, that is not
the tradition,” the founding rabbi said.
The leader of the
“sit down faction” leaned forward, excitedly, and said, “So, it is the
tradition to be seated during the Shema!”
“No, that is not
the tradition,” the founding rabbi said.
“Well,” the new
rabbi said, “If it is not the tradition to stand and it is not the tradition to
sit during the Shema, why do we fight over it?
“That
is the tradition,” the founding rabbi said.
Change the titles
and I think you could tell that story in many, many Christian congregations.
And I think that it
got worse through the pandemic and in our age of tribal identity and social
media.
This is so because
we are saints and sinners. But it is not so in the Reign of God.
Whatever rewards
are dispensed, they are not earned. They are given.
And they aren’t
given on the basis of doing what we think is the right thing. The are given on
the basis of being the persons God made us all to be. We don’t earn God’s
favor. It was bought for us on the cross. We live our lives entirely in
response to that reward.
What is required to
receive a reward in today’s text in Matthew 10:40-42? It’s what is done
“in the name of” a prophet, or of a righteous person, or of a disciple.
To do something “in
the name of” means to do it in the fundamental living reality of that person,
their truest real self.
To do something in
the name of God means to do it in the living reality of God at work within us.
We are made for a living relationship with the one true living God. The God of
Abraham, and Moses and Jacob and Isaiah and Elijah, and Job and the disciples
and Paul. It is the transformative relationship with God that defines us, and
it is us, and it cannot be taken away from us because it is given by
God.
I think that the
way forward for us as a Church is to define our ministry and our life together
in the name of Jesus Christ, to focus on what draws us together not what pulls
us apart, and to keep it there. To be drawn together by Jesus defining
everything about us and everything that we do every day.
We don’t need to
speculate about what is coming, there is no risk involved for us, we don’t need
to predict the future or gamble on it.
We know what the
future holds for us, because we know who holds the future!
God’s rewards
program is the cross. It is reconciliation to God and to one another, it is
forgiveness, peace, and eternal life and it is the restoration of our true
selves as a gift from God.
The FIFA World Cup
has come to us, but only one team will win the prize.
Let us take God’s
rewards program for all people to those who are close to us, and to the
world.
The greatest prize
of reconciliation with God has already been won for us by Jesus Christ!
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